Federal Reserve 2025 Research note

Measuring Geopolitical Risk Exposure Across Industries: A Firm-Centered Approach

Isabel Culver, Friederike Niepmann and Leslie Sheng Shen

Culver, I. & Niepmann, F. & Shen, L. S., “Measuring Geopolitical Risk Exposure Across Industries: A Firm-Centered Approach,” FEDS Notes, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (2025).

Industry geopolitical sentiment

Culver, Niepmann and Shen use NL Analytics to identify geopolitical discussions in earnings calls and measure positive and negative sentiment. They aggregate firm-level scores into industry indices and compare these with stock-price responses to geopolitical shocks.

Study coverage: Approximately 7,000 U.S.-domiciled firms, 2002 Q1–2024 Q3; aggregated into 43 industry groups.
Data and materials: Quarterly firm and industry sentiment indices

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