Managing Expectations: Inflation and Monetary Policy

Firms’ inflation expectations

Box 2.1 of this chapter draws on the firms’ inflation expectations measure developed by Albrizio, Dizioli and Simon in Mining the Gap to examine attention to monetary policy. The contribution and original study coverage below refer to that underlying work.

Albrizio, Dizioli and Simon used NL Analytics to compute underlying firm-level indicators of firms’ inflation expectations and attention to monetary policy from earnings-call transcripts using their keyword dictionaries. Producing the published ECFIE indicators involves additional country- and firm-level filtering, cleaning, and seasonal-adjustment procedures. Repeating the keyword search alone does not reproduce the published series.

Original study coverage

The 2023 working paper covers publicly listed firms across 39 countries and more than 200,000 earnings-call transcripts.

Data and materials

Firm-level indicators and cross-country time series

Published indicators

IMF ECFIE (opens in a new tab or window)Current release: 37 countries; may differ from the 2023 study data.