ECB 2026 Working paper

Supply Chain Uncertainty, Energy Prices, and Inflation

Alfonso Merendino and Tommaso Monacelli

Merendino, A. & Monacelli, T., “Supply Chain Uncertainty, Energy Prices, and Inflation,” ECB Working Paper 3230; author manuscript (2026).

Supply-chain and energy discussion

The authors use NL Analytics for supporting earnings-call indicators of supply-chain disruption and energy-cost discussion, plus transcript-based uncertainty measures. These provide evidence on firms’ perceptions; the paper’s baseline monthly supply-chain uncertainty indices are newspaper-based.

Study coverage: Publicly listed US and euro area firms, 2002 Q1–2025 Q2.
Data and materials: Quarterly discussion and uncertainty indicators

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